The Law of Accelerating Returns

Source: Kurzweila Accelerating Intelligence

An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense “intuitive linear” view. So we won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century — it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today’s rate). The “returns,” such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There’s even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to The Singularity — technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light.

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Disrupt, or be disrupted

Established, powerful companies are disappearing at an alarming rate - some estimates put this rate at 30% in 5 year's time (according to Simon Kaluza - SAP MD for CEE). This disruption mainly c..

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